Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
