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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.